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covid-19:risk_stratification

COVID-19 Risk Stratification

Summary Risk Research

  • Nov 11, 2020 Dr. Marty Makary: Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality among Privately Insured Patients
    • 0.59% Case Fatality Rate overall.
    • Sex: 60.07% Male
    • Age: 70+ was 4.82% of cases, but 42.43% of deaths
    • Cancer: 2.89 to 6.74 odds ratio for mortality.
    • Intellectual disabilities: 2.75 to 3.61 odds ratios.
    • Comorbidities: 83.29% had at least one comorbidity.
    • 0.01% CFR among 0-18.

Genetic Stratification

Protein expression lends itself to prediction of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 with high rates of accuracy.1)

COVID-19 in Children

The topic of COVID-19 in children has become an artificial controversy during the COVID-19 pandemic, most likely due to the need to drive fear to encourage parents to offer up their children as medical experiments as part of the COVID-19 vaccine campaign.

Research Regarding COVID-19 in Children

Pediatric Mortality Rates

  • From March 2020 through February 2021 (one year), there were only 61 children in the UK who died where COVID-19 was listed as a contributing factor.9)

Pediatric Hospitalization Rates

  • COVID-19 and Children: ALL the Answers You Need in ONE PLACE10)
  • The most important papers on SARS-COV2 in kids11)
  • Risk of Hospitalization, severe disease, and mortality due to COVID-19 and PIMS-TS in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Germany12)

National Reports

Germany
Iceland

No hospitalizations among children as of April 2020, and no evidence of children spreading to adults.13)

Netherlands

“Children become less seriously ill and almost never need to be hospitalised. Children who do end up in hospital are usually vulnerable as a result of another disease.”14)

Sweden

In the Media

On October 8, 2021, The New York Times retracted an article falsely claimed that over 900,000 children in the USA had been hospitalized due to COVID-19, overestimating the real number of 63,000 hospitalized children by a factor of 14.15) 16) Even the lower number of 63,000 has been questioned, with some estimates of 39% to 48% of children originally admitted to hospital for unrelated illness but acquiring COVID-19 in the hospital.17)

On October 12, 2021, Alberta Chief Medical Officer of Health Deena Hinshaw reported “the death of a 14-year-old who had complex, pre-existing medical medical conditions that played a significant role in their death,” during a televised COVID-19 update.18) The family of the teenager in question publicly clarified that the young boy had actually died of end-stage cancer, and he simply tested “positive” for COVID-19 in the final days before his passing. After insisting Alberta Health Services was incorrect in their reporting, Hinshaw corrected her mistake and claimed they would evaluate co-morbidities in young COVID-19 deaths more carefully.19) 20)

At least 21 babies under four weeks old died in Scotland in September2021, a rate of 4.9 per 1,000 births (over double what would be expected).

2)
Lauren C. Shuffrey, PhD; Morgan R. Firestein, PhD; Margaret H. Kyle, BA; et al )(2022) JAMA Pediatr. Published online January 4, 2022. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.5563
3) , 6)
Kushner, L. E., Schroeder, A. R., Kim, J., & Mathew, R. (2021). “For COVID” or “With COVID”: Classification of SARS-CoV-2 Hospitalizations in Children. Hospital Pediatrics, 11(8), e151–e156. https://doi.org/10.1542/hpeds.2021-006001
4)
Ledford, H. (2021). Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children. Nature, 595(7869), 639. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01897-w
5)
Graff, K., Smith, C., Silveira, L., Jung, S., Curran-Hays, S., Jarjour, J., Carpenter, L., Pickard, K., Mattiucci, M., Fresia, J., McFarland, E. J., Dominguez, S. R., & Abuogi, L. (2021). Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 in Children. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 40(4), e137. https://doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000003043
7)
Lee, B., & Raszka, W. V. (2020). COVID-19 in Children: Looking Forward, Not Back. Pediatrics, 147(1), e2020029736. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2020-029736
8)
Kim, J., Choe, Y. J., Lee, J., Park, Y. J., Park, O., Han, M. S., Kim, J.-H., & Choi, E. H. (2020). Role of children in household transmission of COVID-19. Archives of Disease in Childhood. https://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2020-319910
9)
November 11, 2021 | Clare Smith et al | Nature Medicine | DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01578-1
11)
March 3, 2022 | Josh Stevenson | The most important papers on SARS-COV2 in kids
12)
November 30, 2021 | AL Sorg et al | Risk of Hospitalization, severe disease, and mortality due to COVID-19 and PIMS-TS in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Germany | doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.30.21267048
13)
Thors, V. S. (2020, April). EAP Blog – COVID-19 Series (#5) | Iceland’s data on the infectivity of children cross-infection risk. European Academy of Paediatrics. https://www.eapaediatrics.eu/eap-blog-covid-19-series-5-icelands-data-on-the-infectivity-of-children-cross-infection-risk/
14)
Children, school and COVID-19. (2021, December 14). National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19
15)
The New York Times. (2021, October 8). Corrections: Oct. 8, 2021. Retrieved November 24, 2021, from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/pageoneplus/corrections-oct-8-2021.html
16)
Chaufan, C., MD PhD, Pelech, S., PhD, Collins, O., BSc, Forte, M., PhD, Francis, D., PhD, RN, Graham, J., PhD, de Ruiter, A., PhD, Rancourt, D., PhD, Rinner, C., PhD, Ponesse, J., PhD, Vrbik, J., PhD, Epstein-Gilboa, K., PhD, Durante, A., PhD, Springer, H., PhD, Hall, A. J., PhD, Zimmerman, J., PhD, Leduc, L., PhD, Cheung, K., PhD, Capurri, V., PhD, . . . Manwell, L., PhD. (2021, November 6). Urgent Letter to Doug Ford: COVID-19 Vaccines Are Not Safe for Children and Youth. Canadian Covid Care Alliance. Retrieved November 16, 2021, from https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Letter-to-Premier-Ford.ChildrenYouth21.11.06.pdf
17)
Digitale, E. (2021, May 19). COVID-19 hospitalizations among children likely overcounted, researchers find. Stanford Medicine. Retrieved November 24, 2021, from http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/05/covid-19-hospitalizations-among-kids-likely-overcounted.html
18)
CTV News Edmonton Staff. (2021, October 12). “Our numbers are still extremely high”: Alberta reports 3,358 new COVID-19 cases, 33 deaths since Friday. CTV News. https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/our-numbers-are-still-extremely-high-alberta-reports-3-358-new-covid-19-cases-33-deaths-since-friday-1.5620555
19)
CTV News Edmonton Staff. (2021, October 14). Hinshaw apologizes after Alberta mistakenly reports 14-year-old’s cancer death was caused by COVID-19. CTV News. https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/hinshaw-apologizes-after-alberta-mistakenly-reports-14-year-old-s-cancer-death-was-caused-by-covid-19-1.5623489
20)
Wallis Snowdon. (2021, October 15). Alberta’s reporting of comorbidities questioned after boy, 14, removed from COVID-19 death count. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/covid-comorbidities-alberta-spitzer-1.6212510
covid-19/risk_stratification.txt · Last modified: 2022/04/27 15:01 by mathew