SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Interest

SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest (or variants of concern) are evolutionary offshoots in the SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree that are at least temporarily evolutionarily stable due to outcompeting other strains in their immediate geography.

While there is no guarantee that SARS-CoV-2 variants are correctly identified or defined, these are resources with descriptions and definitions:

• CDC: SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions

See also

• Surveillance and Testing

• CoV-Lineages.org Pango Lineages: Latest epidemiological lineages of SARS-CoV-2.
• CoVariants.org draws data from GISAID.
• CDC COVID Tracker Variant Proportions.
  • This page is a little misleading in terms of whether it is more surveillance or modeling. Read the description and judge for yourself, and perhaps check other sources.
• UK Health Security Agency Variants: distribution of case data
• CoV-Spectrum.com Shows proportions of SARS-CoV viruses/strains by nation.

Early during the pandemic, research indicated no evidence across over 15,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide that mutations led to increased transmissibility.¹⁾ In Congress, Dr. Anthony Fauci notes that all RNA viruses mutate, “but that doesn't mean they change,” suggesting that evolution of the virus was not likely to change vaccine efficacy.²⁾

• Dec 11, 2021 - Figgins and Bedford (preprint): SARS-CoV-2 variant dynamics across US states show consistent differences in effective reproduction numbers.³⁾

The Greek alphabet is being used to name SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest.

The alpha strain (UK variant) has 19 nonynonymous mutations across its genome including 8 substitutions or deletions in the spike protein. These changes in the spike protein result in enhanced fitness and transmission.⁴⁾

The delta strain appears to have emerged from India, and may have been an (immune) escape variant.⁵⁾ Early data from the UK indicated that delta was far less lethal and that vaccines were far less effective against it.^{6) 7)} However, case fatality rates around the world seem to remain unchanged despite delta taking over the lion's share of cases.

• Claim: The reproductive number of delta is substantially higher than for prior variants (5.08 vs. 2.79).⁸⁾
  • The study tests over a small number of locales, and without respect to vaccine interaction, which might influence R given evidence that delta was an escape variant.

Came from Peru.

Initially named a “variant of concern” by the WHO, Omicron appears to be a “cousin” of SARS-CoV-2, not part of the variant lineage.

Debate over the manner and emergence of some SARS-CoV-2 variants has been tenuous during the COVID-19 pandemic.

An Emergency Room doctor told financial YouTuber Gregory Mannarino on air that he believes “all variants are likely caused by the vaccine.”⁹⁾

Niesen et al: vaccination dampens antigen mutational variance https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1

Bret Weinstein, talking to Joe Rogan, explains that Geert van den Bosch predicted that the vaccines would cause variants through evolutionary pressure. And here we are.

Wang et al: Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 evolution revealing vaccine-resistant mutations in Europe and America. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34873910/