Excess all-cause mortality provides an estimate of the additional number of deaths within a given time period in a geographical region (e.g. country), compared to the number of deaths expected (often estimated using the same time period in the preceding year or averaged over several preceding years). In encompassing deaths from all causes, excess mortality overcomes the variation between countries in reporting and testing of COVID-19 and in the misclassification of the cause of death on death certificates. Under the assumption that the incidence of other diseases remains steady over time, then excess deaths can be viewed as those caused both directly and indirectly by COVID-19, COVID-19 pharmaceutical interventions and/or COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions, giving a summary measure of the ‘whole system’ impact.1).
COVID vaccination and age-stratified all-cause mortality risk
October 2021 - LicenseCC BY-SA 4.0
Project: Risk benefit analyses of COVID vaccination stratified by age
Authors: Spiro Pantazatos - Molecular Imaging and Neuropathology Area, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY
Hervé Seligmann - Independent Research Scientist, Jerusalem, Israel
Abstract and Figures
Accurate estimates of COVID vaccine-induced severe adverse event and death rates are critical for risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination and boosters against SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in different age groups. However, existing surveillance studies are not designed to reliably estimate life-threatening event or vaccine-induced mortality risk (VMR).
Here, regional variation in vaccination rates was used to predict all-cause mortality and non-COVID deaths in subsequent time periods using two independent, publicly available datasets from the US and Europe (month-and week-level resolutions, respectively). Vaccination correlated negatively with mortality 6-20 weeks post-injection, while vaccination predicted all-cause mortality 0-5 weeks post-injection in almost all age groups and with an age-related temporal pattern consistent with the US vaccine rollout.
Results from fitted regression slopes (p<0.05 FDR corrected) suggest a US national average VMR of 0.04% and higher VMR with age (VMR=0.004% in ages 0-17 increasing to 0.06% in ages >75 years), and 146K to 187K vaccine-associated US deaths between February and August, 2021. Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe).
Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VMR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VMRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure.
We discuss implications for public health policies related to boosters, school and workplace mandates, and the urgent need to identify, develop and disseminate diagnostics and treatments for life-altering vaccine injuries. E-mail- spp2101@columbia.edu Twitter- @spiropantazatos Note two archive dates on preprint server since November 20212) 3)