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rand_corporation [2021/12/21 11:28]
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rand_corporation [2021/12/21 20:32] (current)
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 In addition to the National Intelligence Council, funding was provided by the Intelligence Technology In addition to the National Intelligence Council, funding was provided by the Intelligence Technology
 Innovation Center (ITIC) and the U.S. Department of Energy. It is a follow-on report to RAND MR-1307-NIC, The Global Technology Revolution (2001), which was sponsored by the NIC to inform its 2000 document, Global Trends 2015. Innovation Center (ITIC) and the U.S. Department of Energy. It is a follow-on report to RAND MR-1307-NIC, The Global Technology Revolution (2001), which was sponsored by the NIC to inform its 2000 document, Global Trends 2015.
 +
 +== Conclusions Reached ==
 +
 +The report finds that the the "accelerated pace of technology development" will continue, underlined by "the continuing trend toward globally integrated publications media, Internet connectivity, and scientific conferences, as well as the development and crossfertilization of ever more sensitive and selective instrumentation."
  
 == Notable Contents == == Notable Contents ==
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 Many interesting and noteworthy technologies are mentioned, some directly relevant in the [[COVID-19]] crisis. For now, here is a summary for further investigation at a later date: Many interesting and noteworthy technologies are mentioned, some directly relevant in the [[COVID-19]] crisis. For now, here is a summary for further investigation at a later date:
  
 +  * Artificial tissue and muscle engineering
   * Biometrics as sole ID   * Biometrics as sole ID
   * Biomimetic and function-restoring implants   * Biomimetic and function-restoring implants
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   * Communication devices for ubiquitous information access anywhere, anytime   * Communication devices for ubiquitous information access anywhere, anytime
   * Computational (or “in-silico”) drug discovery and testing    * Computational (or “in-silico”) drug discovery and testing 
 +  * Drugs tailored to genetics
 +  * Electronic transactions
   * Embedded sensors and computational devices in commercial goods    * Embedded sensors and computational devices in commercial goods 
 +  * Enhanced medical recovery
   * Filters and catalysts for water purification and decontamination   * Filters and catalysts for water purification and decontamination
   * Fluorescent quantum dots for medical diagnosis and treatment   * Fluorescent quantum dots for medical diagnosis and treatment
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   * Genetically modified (GM) crops    * Genetically modified (GM) crops 
   * Green manufacturing    * Green manufacturing 
 +  * Hands-free computer interface
   * High-tech terrorism   * High-tech terrorism
   * Hospital robotics   * Hospital robotics
   * Hybrid vehicles   * Hybrid vehicles
 +  * Hydrogen vehicles
 +  * Immunotherapy
   * Implants for tracking and ID   * Implants for tracking and ID
   * Improved diagnostic and surgical methods    * Improved diagnostic and surgical methods 
 +  * Improved treatments from data analysis
 +  * //In-silico// drug research and development
   * Ingestible radio transmitters   * Ingestible radio transmitters
   * Large, searchable databases containing detailed personal and medical data   * Large, searchable databases containing detailed personal and medical data
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   * Personalized medicine and therapies   * Personalized medicine and therapies
   * Pervasive undetectable cameras and sophisticated sensor networks    * Pervasive undetectable cameras and sophisticated sensor networks 
 +  * Print-to-order books
   * Proxy-bot   * Proxy-bot
   * Quantum computers   * Quantum computers
   * Quantum-based cryptographic systems for secure information transfer   * Quantum-based cryptographic systems for secure information transfer
   * Rapid bioassays using bionanotechnologies   * Rapid bioassays using bionanotechnologies
 +  * Resistant textiles
   * Robotic scientist   * Robotic scientist
   * Rural wireless communications   * Rural wireless communications
 +  * Secure data transfer
   * Secure video monitoring   * Secure video monitoring
   * Small and efficient portable power systems    * Small and efficient portable power systems 
   * Smart fabrics and textiles    * Smart fabrics and textiles 
 +  * Smart systems
   * Super soldiers   * Super soldiers
   * Targeted drug delivery through molecular recognition   * Targeted drug delivery through molecular recognition
   * Therapies based on stem cell R&   * Therapies based on stem cell R&
-  * Tissue engineering 
   * Ubiquitous radio frequency identification (RFID) tagging and tracking of commercial products and individuals   * Ubiquitous radio frequency identification (RFID) tagging and tracking of commercial products and individuals
   * Unconventional Transport    * Unconventional Transport 
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   * Widespread bundled information and communications technologies, including wireless Internet connectivity   * Widespread bundled information and communications technologies, including wireless Internet connectivity
   * Xenotransplantation   * Xenotransplantation
 +
 +**Eugenics**
 +
 +  * "Many of the most controversial TAs involve biotechnology—for example, GM crops, GM insects, **genetic screening, gene therapy, and genetic selection of offspring**. Other TAs spark heated debate because of their **potential implications for personal privacy and freedom**. These include **pervasive sensors**, certain uses of **RFID implants for tracking and identification of people**, **chip implants for the brain**, and **biometrics as sole personal identification**. **Genetic screening** is a biotechnology application that also raises privacy concerns. For example, **would individuals with certain genetic characteristics and established links to certain types of disease and illness be denied health insurance or jobs, or face other forms of discrimination?**"
 +
 +**Nanotechnology for tracking and control**
 +
 +  * "...the growth rate has been achieved by a continual progression to increasingly more-dense complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) chip fabrication technologies."
 +  *  "Current commercial fabrication methods are already at the nanoscale, with nominal feature size of 90 nanometers and gate width of 50 nanometers, and approaches to scale down to 10 nanometers feature size are under research."
 +  * "However, by 2020, the continued reduction of feature size is likely to require nonconventional and hybrid methods; several different approaches (e.g., based on nanotubes, nanowires, and molecular switches) have been suggested and are being pursued."
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