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neil_ferguson [2022/04/21 20:29]
pamela 		neil_ferguson [2022/09/01 16:36] (current)
pamela
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-===== Professor Neil Ferguson ===== +====== Neil Ferguson ====== 
-{{ ::neil_ferguson.png?400|}}+{{ ::neil_ferguson.png?200|}}
  
  
-==== Imperial College bio ====+===== Imperial College bio =====
  
 Jan 2020 archive - Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health Jan 2020 archive - Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health
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 Recently been published in Science, my research on the [[:Sanofi]] [[:vaccine]] (in collaboration with colleagues at the [[:University of Florida]] and [[:Johns Hopkins]] University) examined the benefits and risks associated with large-scale roll-out immunisation programmes using this vaccine. Our analysis showed that the the complex efficacy trends seen in the clinical trials of the vaccine was consitent with the hypothesis that the vaccine acted akin to a silent (i.e. non-symptomatic) natural infection - priming the immune system of people who have never had dengue (and thus potentially increasing their risk of experience severe dengue infection in future), but boosting the immunity of those who experienced dengue before being vaccinated (thus dramatically reducing their risk of experiencing severe dengue disease in future).((https://web.archive.org/web/20200128230115/https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson)) Recently been published in Science, my research on the [[:Sanofi]] [[:vaccine]] (in collaboration with colleagues at the [[:University of Florida]] and [[:Johns Hopkins]] University) examined the benefits and risks associated with large-scale roll-out immunisation programmes using this vaccine. Our analysis showed that the the complex efficacy trends seen in the clinical trials of the vaccine was consitent with the hypothesis that the vaccine acted akin to a silent (i.e. non-symptomatic) natural infection - priming the immune system of people who have never had dengue (and thus potentially increasing their risk of experience severe dengue infection in future), but boosting the immunity of those who experienced dengue before being vaccinated (thus dramatically reducing their risk of experiencing severe dengue disease in future).((https://web.archive.org/web/20200128230115/https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson))
 +
 +
 +===== Adventures in Modeling =====
  
 ==== Ferguson's Lock-down Model ==== ==== Ferguson's Lock-down Model ====
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 Those who attack Neil Ferguson and [[:Sage]]’s pandemic predictions only expose their ignorance about science Those who attack Neil Ferguson and [[:Sage]]’s pandemic predictions only expose their ignorance about science
  
-t feels like open season on Professor Neil Ferguson right now. Sections of the media and several columnists delight in castigating the epidemiologist, or “Professor Lockdown”, for being “doomster in chief”, constantly predicting catastrophe and then backpeddling when the worst numbers don’t materialise.+It feels like open season on Professor Neil Ferguson right now. Sections of the media and several columnists delight in castigating the epidemiologist, or “Professor Lockdown”, for being “doomster in chief”, constantly predicting catastrophe and then backpeddling when the worst numbers don’t materialise.
  
 Opponents of Covid restrictions blame Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London for persuading Boris Johnson to shake off his libertarian instincts and take us into lockdown. One presenter on new channel GB News described Ferguson as a “numpty” on air, and the very mention of his name attracts groans in some circles. Opponents of Covid restrictions blame Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London for persuading Boris Johnson to shake off his libertarian instincts and take us into lockdown. One presenter on new channel GB News described Ferguson as a “numpty” on air, and the very mention of his name attracts groans in some circles.
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 It is right that scientists and evidence are scrutinised. The scientific endeavour is based on testing ideas and self-correction, and external challenges make science better. But calling scientists rude names and encouraging the public not to trust experts who revise their data and correct themselves is anti-science and anti-intellectual. It is right that scientists and evidence are scrutinised. The scientific endeavour is based on testing ideas and self-correction, and external challenges make science better. But calling scientists rude names and encouraging the public not to trust experts who revise their data and correct themselves is anti-science and anti-intellectual.
  
-Fiona Fox is chief executive of the Science Media Centre (petrochemical PR)((https://web.archive.org/web/20210808080952/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/britains-covid-experts-neil-ferguson-sage-are-under-attack-but-they-are-just-doing-their-jobs))+Fiona Fox is chief executive of the [[:Science Media Centre]] (petrochemical PR)((https://web.archive.org/web/20210808080952/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/britains-covid-experts-neil-ferguson-sage-are-under-attack-but-they-are-just-doing-their-jobs)) 
 + 
 + 
 +==== Past Predictions Epic Failures ==== 
 + 
 +2001 
 +“The Imperial College team, whose work is published on the website of the journal Nature, predicts the future number of deaths from vCJD due to BSE in beef was likely to lie between 50 and 50,000.” – Daily Mail 
 +“But Dr. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist in another group of highly respected researchers led by Dr. Roy Anderson at Imperial College in London, said the new estimates were ”unjustifiably optimistic.” His group published estimates a year ago predicting that the number of variant C.J.D. cases might reach 136,000 in coming decades.” – New York Times Oct 31st 2001 
 + 
 +FACT - A total of 2826 people have died from CJD over 30 years – National CJD Research and Surveillance Unit, The University of Edinburgh 
 + 
 +2005 
 +“Last month Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.” – The Guardian Sep 30th 2005 
 + 
 +FACT- “Since 2013 there have been 1,568 human cases of bird flu and 616 deaths worldwide from the H7N9 strain.” – The Express Dec 7th 2020 
 + 
 +In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. 
 + 
 +FACT - 457 people are known to have died during the pandemic in the UK as of 18 March 2010” – 
 + 
 +In addition to these debacles, Ferguson as goaded the British government with outrageous predictions about the disastrous Foot and Mouth disease crisis – which sparked the mass-culling of farm animals during the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic which cost the country billions of pounds, with most rural areas never recovering from the over-the-top government intervention.((https://web.archive.org/web/20210227153520/https://21stcenturywire.com/2021/02/25/imperial-folly-neil-ferguson-has-no-qualification-in-biological-sciences/)) 
 + 
 + 
 +==== One More Public Health Fraud ====
  
 +British scientist and Professor Neil Ferguson of The [[:Imperial College]], London (the same Imperial College of London funded by the [[:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation]] was responsible for developing the mathematical pandemic computer models for the COVID-19 pandemic. The world followed Ferguson’s advice, yet all his models have been proven to be grossly over stated and misleading. 
  
 +For example, Ferguson modeled that Sweden would experience 100,000 deaths by June, 2020. To date, Sweden peaked at 2,854 deaths total. ((https://web.archive.org/web/20200531232716/https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/professor-lockdown-modeler-resigns-in-disgrace/)) ((https://web.archive.org/web/20200531183151/http://salmartingano.com/2020/05/the-1918-spanish-flu-only-the-vaccinated-died/))
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