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covid-19_vaccines:efficacy [2022/04/05 09:42]
mathew 		covid-19_vaccines:efficacy [2022/10/21 18:11] (current)
xinke [Waning Efficacy]
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     * The authors inexplicably failed to make an expected standard risk-adjustment in their calculations, inflating efficacy results.((August 26, 2021 | [[:Mathew Crawford]] | [[:Rounding the Earth]] | [[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/how-to-rig-research-unadjusted-person|How to Rig Research: Unadjusted Person-Day Risk]]))     * The authors inexplicably failed to make an expected standard risk-adjustment in their calculations, inflating efficacy results.((August 26, 2021 | [[:Mathew Crawford]] | [[:Rounding the Earth]] | [[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/how-to-rig-research-unadjusted-person|How to Rig Research: Unadjusted Person-Day Risk]]))
   * Sep 28, 2021 - Waning of IgG, Total and Neutralizing Antibodies 6 Months Post-Vaccination with BNT162b2 in Healthcare Workers((September 28, 2021 | Jean-Louis Bayart et al | Waning of IgG, Total and Neutralizing Antibodies 6 Months Post-Vaccination with BNT162b2 in Healthcare Workers | [[https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/10/1092/htm#app1-vaccines-09-01092|https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101092]]))   * Sep 28, 2021 - Waning of IgG, Total and Neutralizing Antibodies 6 Months Post-Vaccination with BNT162b2 in Healthcare Workers((September 28, 2021 | Jean-Louis Bayart et al | Waning of IgG, Total and Neutralizing Antibodies 6 Months Post-Vaccination with BNT162b2 in Healthcare Workers | [[https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/10/1092/htm#app1-vaccines-09-01092|https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101092]]))
 +  * Nov 18, 2021 - Isolation of 4000 SARS-CoV-2 shows that contagiousness is associated with viral load, not vaccine or symptomatic status((November 18, 2021 | Celine Boschi et al | Emerging Microbes and Infections | Isolation of 4000 SARS-CoV-2 shows that contagiousness is associated with viral load, not vaccine or symptomatic status | [[https://cogentoa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2021.2008776|doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2021.2008776]]))
 +  * June 23, 2022 - Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign((June 23, 2022 | Theodore Lytras et al | J Med Virol | Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign | [[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9349766/|doi: 10.1002/jmv.27934]]))
 +    * The lead author and a co-authored also authored a paper in support of lockdowns. That co-author is a spokesman with a spokesman for the [[Hellenic Ministry of Health]].((February, 2021 | Theodore Lytras and Sotirios Tsiodra | Scand J Public Health | Lockdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic: What is the endgame? | [[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32981448/|DOI: 10.1177/1403494820961293]]))
 +    * The waning of VE from 90% to 80% is substantially less than from other reported retrospective results.
 +    * Says the olderly are more than 1000x as at risk as the young without even a word suggesting that absolute benefits may not justify the risks for the young.
 +
 +
 +==== Surveillance Data ====
  
 === Global COVID-19 Vaccine Systemic Efficacy Statistics === === Global COVID-19 Vaccine Systemic Efficacy Statistics ===
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   * Deaths have increased 46.3% worldwide.   * Deaths have increased 46.3% worldwide.
  
- * [[:Mathew Crawford]] wrote at [[:Rounding the Earth]] about how there is no distinction in any [[:COVID-19 vaccine trials]] data or subsequent retrospective analyses that is inconsistent with the [[:hypothesis]] that the vaccines are ineffective. ([[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-vaccine-efficacy-part-4|Systemic Vaccine Efficacy, Part 4]])+ * [[:Mathew Crawford]] wrote at [[:Rounding the Earth]] about how there is no distinction in any [[COVID-19 vaccines:COVID-19 vaccine trials]] data or subsequent retrospective analyses that is inconsistent with the [[:hypothesis]] that the vaccines are ineffective. ([[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-vaccine-efficacy-part-4|Systemic Vaccine Efficacy, Part 4]]) 
 + 
 +=== Selective Reporting === 
 +In February, 2022, the [[:CDC]] admitted to withholding critical data on boosters, hospitalizations, and wastewater analyses.((February 22, 2022 | [[:The New York Times]] | [[https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/health/covid-cdc-data.html|The C.D.C. Isn’t Publishing Large Portions of the Covid Data It Collects]]))
  
 === Local Observational Studies and Anecdotes === === Local Observational Studies and Anecdotes ===
-Little difference in [[:SARS-CoV-2]] positive rates was observed among airport travelers in [[Israel]]. ((November 13, 2021 | Koren et al | [[https://pecc-il.org/pdf-doc/green-pass-and-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-in-israel-a-more-realistic-empirical-assessment-analyzing-the-airport-data/|Green Pass and COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots in Israel– A More ‘Realistic’ Empirical Assessment Analyzing the National Airport Data]]))+Little difference in [[:SARS-CoV-2]] positive rates was observed among airport travelers in [[:Israel]]. ((November 13, 2021 | Koren et al | [[https://pecc-il.org/pdf-doc/green-pass-and-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-in-israel-a-more-realistic-empirical-assessment-analyzing-the-airport-data/|Green Pass and COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots in Israel– A More ‘Realistic’ Empirical Assessment Analyzing the National Airport Data]]))
  
 Despite a 99.5% double-vaccination rate, Co Waterford, Ireland had the highest case rate in all of Ireland in early November, 2021.((November 6, 2021 | [[:Sky News]] | [[https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642|COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?]])) Despite a 99.5% double-vaccination rate, Co Waterford, Ireland had the highest case rate in all of Ireland in early November, 2021.((November 6, 2021 | [[:Sky News]] | [[https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642|COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?]]))
 +
 +More recently, Rintrah wrote on the vaccine lack of effectiveness in Denmark:
 +
 +https://www.rintrah.nl/the-complete-and-utter-failure-of-the-vaccines-illustrated-in-two-charts/
 +
 +==== Efficacy Specific to Those Recovered From COVID-19 ====
 +  * Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine after Recovery from Covid-19((March 31, 2022 | Ariel Hammerman et al | [[:NEJM]] | Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine after Recovery from Covid-19 | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2119497#.Yg2sg6-5LvQ.twitter|DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2119497]]))
 +
  
 ==== Booster Efficacy ==== ==== Booster Efficacy ====
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 === Waning Booster Efficacy === === Waning Booster Efficacy ===
-Medpage Today reported that COVID vaccine booster efficacy may want quickly.((December 28, 2021 | MedPage Today | [[https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/96412|COVID Vaccine Booster Efficacy Against Infection May Fade Quickly]]))+Medpage Today reported that COVID vaccine booster efficacy may wane quickly.((December 28, 2021 | MedPage Today | [[https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/96412|COVID Vaccine Booster Efficacy Against Infection May Fade Quickly]]))
  
 ==== Efficacy by Variant ==== ==== Efficacy by Variant ====
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 === Efficacy vs. Delta === === Efficacy vs. Delta ===
   * Aug 12, 2021 - Bernal et al: Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant ((August 12, 2021 | Bernal et al | [[:New England Journal of Medicine]] | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2108891|DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2108891]]))   * Aug 12, 2021 - Bernal et al: Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant ((August 12, 2021 | Bernal et al | [[:New England Journal of Medicine]] | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2108891|DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2108891]]))
 +  * June 23, 2022 - Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign((June 23, 2022 | Theodore Lytras et al | J Med Virol | Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign | [[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9349766/|doi: 10.1002/jmv.27934]]))
 +    * This study from Greece concludes 90% VE which waves to 80% over six months, consistent over age bands.
  
 === Efficacy vs. Omicron === === Efficacy vs. Omicron ===
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 ==== Critiques of Data ==== ==== Critiques of Data ====
 [[:Martin Neil]] et al wrote up a statistical analysis ([[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356756711_Latest_statistics_on_England_mortality_data_suggest_systematic_mis-categorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination|in preprint]] as of December 14, 2021) suggestive of systematic mis-categorization of vaccination status making COVID-19 vaccine efficacy appear better than reality in retrospective analyses. [[:Martin Neil]] et al wrote up a statistical analysis ([[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356756711_Latest_statistics_on_England_mortality_data_suggest_systematic_mis-categorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination|in preprint]] as of December 14, 2021) suggestive of systematic mis-categorization of vaccination status making COVID-19 vaccine efficacy appear better than reality in retrospective analyses.
 +
 +Professor [[:Norman Fenton]] and colleagues noted numerous statistical sieves and paradoxes that make published studies unreliable.((September, 2021 | [[:Norman Fenton]] et al | preprint | Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness: Why current studies (for or against vaccination) cannot be trusted and what we can do about it |[[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354601308_Paradoxes_in_the_reporting_of_Covid19_vaccine_effectiveness_Why_current_studies_for_or_against_vaccination_cannot_be_trusted_and_what_we_can_do_about_it|DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.32655.30886]])) In a blog post, Fenton demonstrated that in a simulation, either delays in death reports or the counting of recently vaccinated as unvaccinated can fully explain claimed efficacy rates.((November 14, 2021 | [[:Norman Fenton]] | [[https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html|Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?]]))
  
 Pharmaceutical marketing expert, biotech analyst, and former [[:pharmaceutical_companies:Pfizer]] employee [[:Karen Kingston]] argues that infections rose substantially after injection with COVID-19 vaccines.((Oct 1, 2021 | [[:A Final Warning]] | [[https://www.afinalwarning.com/558686.html|Former Pfizer employee flags FDA study, warns that Pfizer vaccine increases COVID by over 300%]])) Pharmaceutical marketing expert, biotech analyst, and former [[:pharmaceutical_companies:Pfizer]] employee [[:Karen Kingston]] argues that infections rose substantially after injection with COVID-19 vaccines.((Oct 1, 2021 | [[:A Final Warning]] | [[https://www.afinalwarning.com/558686.html|Former Pfizer employee flags FDA study, warns that Pfizer vaccine increases COVID by over 300%]]))
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