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--- covid-19_vaccines:efficacy [2022/01/21 14:43]
mathew
+++ covid-19_vaccines:efficacy [2022/10/21 18:11] (current)
xinke [Waning Efficacy]
@@ Line 10: / Line 10: @@
 There are several forms of evidence with regard to vaccine efficacy, of which reports from [[:covid_19_vaccines_trials|trials and observational studies]]. It is worth noting that the trial reports are self-reported by the vaccine manufacturers with little outside oversight.
-Evidence from both trial reports and retrospective analysis show similar results of increased infection and transmission among the recently vaccinated, though published efficacy computations seem to generally exclude these infections from efficacy computations. Including them dramatically changes efficacy results.((March 26, 2021 | [[:Clare Craig]] | Letter to the Editor of the [[:British Journal of Medicine]] | [[https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n783/rr|Covid-19: Stronger warnings are needed to curb socialising after vaccination, say doctors and behavioural scientists]]))
+Evidence from both trial reports and retrospective analysis show similar results of increased infection and transmission among the //recently// vaccinated, though published efficacy computations seem to generally exclude these infections from efficacy computations. Including them dramatically changes efficacy results.((March 26, 2021 | [[:Clare Craig]] | Letter to the Editor of the [[:British Journal of Medicine]] | [[https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n783/rr|Covid-19: Stronger warnings are needed to curb socialising after vaccination, say doctors and behavioural scientists]]))
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     * There is a substantial conflict of interest as at least 8 of the authors admit to holding Pfizer stock and stock options.
     * The authors inexplicably failed to make an expected standard risk-adjustment in their calculations, inflating efficacy results.((August 26, 2021 | [[:Mathew Crawford]] | [[:Rounding the Earth]] | [[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/how-to-rig-research-unadjusted-person|How to Rig Research: Unadjusted Person-Day Risk]]))
+  * Sep 28, 2021 - Waning of IgG, Total and Neutralizing Antibodies 6 Months Post-Vaccination with BNT162b2 in Healthcare Workers((September 28, 2021 | Jean-Louis Bayart et al | Waning of IgG, Total and Neutralizing Antibodies 6 Months Post-Vaccination with BNT162b2 in Healthcare Workers | [[https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/10/1092/htm#app1-vaccines-09-01092|https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101092]]))
+  * Nov 18, 2021 - Isolation of 4000 SARS-CoV-2 shows that contagiousness is associated with viral load, not vaccine or symptomatic status((November 18, 2021 | Celine Boschi et al | Emerging Microbes and Infections | Isolation of 4000 SARS-CoV-2 shows that contagiousness is associated with viral load, not vaccine or symptomatic status | [[https://cogentoa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2021.2008776|doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2021.2008776]]))
+  * June 23, 2022 - Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign((June 23, 2022 | Theodore Lytras et al | J Med Virol | Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign | [[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9349766/|doi: 10.1002/jmv.27934]]))
+    * The lead author and a co-authored also authored a paper in support of lockdowns. That co-author is a spokesman with a spokesman for the [[Hellenic Ministry of Health]].((February, 2021 | Theodore Lytras and Sotirios Tsiodra | Scand J Public Health | Lockdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic: What is the endgame? | [[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32981448/|DOI: 10.1177/1403494820961293]]))
+    * The waning of VE from 90% to 80% is substantially less than from other reported retrospective results.
+    * Says the olderly are more than 1000x as at risk as the young without even a word suggesting that absolute benefits may not justify the risks for the young.
-=== Efficacy by Variant ===
+==== Surveillance Data ====
+=== Global COVID-19 Vaccine Systemic Efficacy Statistics ===
+ * [[:Mathew Crawford]] wrote at [[:Rounding the Earth]] about how COVID-19 cases and deaths are going up in far more nations than in where they are going down since vaccine rollout. ([[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-covid-19-vaccine-efficacy|Systemic COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Basics]]) The article reports that as of October 20, 2021, according to the [[:Our World in Data]] COVID-19 dataset,
+  * Cases have increased 26.1% in [[:Africa]].
+  * Cases have increased 169.6% in [[:Asia]].
+  * Cases have increased 690% in [[:Australia]].
+  * Cases have increased 56.6% in [[:Europe]].
+  * Cases have increased 67.6% in [[:North America]].
+  * Cases have increased 59.9% in [[:South America]].
+  * Cases have increased 76.3% worldwide.
+  * Deaths have increased 27.1% in Africa.
+  * Deaths have increased 122.8% in Asia.
+  * Deaths have increased 155.3% in Australia
+  * Deaths have increased 30.2% in Europe.
+  * Deaths have increased 37.3% in North America.
+  * Deaths have increased 55.7% in South America.
+  * Deaths have increased 46.3% worldwide.
+ * [[:Mathew Crawford]] wrote at [[:Rounding the Earth]] about how there is no distinction in any [[COVID-19 vaccines:COVID-19 vaccine trials]] data or subsequent retrospective analyses that is inconsistent with the [[:hypothesis]] that the vaccines are ineffective. ([[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-vaccine-efficacy-part-4|Systemic Vaccine Efficacy, Part 4]])
+=== Selective Reporting ===
+In February, 2022, the [[:CDC]] admitted to withholding critical data on boosters, hospitalizations, and wastewater analyses.((February 22, 2022 | [[:The New York Times]] | [[https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/health/covid-cdc-data.html|The C.D.C. Isn’t Publishing Large Portions of the Covid Data It Collects]]))
+=== Local Observational Studies and Anecdotes ===
+Little difference in [[:SARS-CoV-2]] positive rates was observed among airport travelers in [[:Israel]]. ((November 13, 2021 | Koren et al | [[https://pecc-il.org/pdf-doc/green-pass-and-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-in-israel-a-more-realistic-empirical-assessment-analyzing-the-airport-data/|Green Pass and COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots in Israel– A More ‘Realistic’ Empirical Assessment Analyzing the National Airport Data]]))
+Despite a 99.5% double-vaccination rate, Co Waterford, Ireland had the highest case rate in all of Ireland in early November, 2021.((November 6, 2021 | [[:Sky News]] | [[https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642|COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?]]))
+More recently, Rintrah wrote on the vaccine lack of effectiveness in Denmark:
+https://www.rintrah.nl/the-complete-and-utter-failure-of-the-vaccines-illustrated-in-two-charts/
+==== Efficacy Specific to Those Recovered From COVID-19 ====
+  * Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine after Recovery from Covid-19((March 31, 2022 | Ariel Hammerman et al | [[:NEJM]] | Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine after Recovery from Covid-19 | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2119497#.Yg2sg6-5LvQ.twitter|DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2119497]]))
+==== Booster Efficacy ====
+One group of researchers published a claim of 92% to 95% efficacy against COVID-19 among boosted Israelis.((October 7, 2021 | Yinon M. Bar-On et al | JAMA | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255|DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2114255]]))
+==== Waning Efficacy ====
+In late 2021, a story of waning efficacy begin to appear, seemingly bolstered by several published papers.((October 25, 2021 | Peter Nordstrom and Marcel Ballin | [[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410|Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination Against Risk of Symptomatic Infection, Hospitalization, and Death Up to 9 Months: A Swedish Total-Population Cohort Study]]))
+There has been no effort to distinguish waning efficacy from statistical sieves.
+=== Waning Booster Efficacy ===
+Medpage Today reported that COVID vaccine booster efficacy may wane quickly.((December 28, 2021 | MedPage Today | [[https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/96412|COVID Vaccine Booster Efficacy Against Infection May Fade Quickly]]))
+==== Efficacy by Variant ====
 According to Peter McCullough, the data from the UK Covid briefing of December 21, 2021,((https://twitter.com/p_mcculloughmd/status/1478516773490204673?s=21)) "shows that the most effective product against Delta and the legacy strains is now near zero efficacy over time against the milder and more brief Omicron strain."
@@ Line 30: / Line 85: @@
 {{ :covid-19_vaccines:zero_effective.jpg?400 |}}
-== Efficacy vs. Delta ==
+=== Efficacy vs. Delta ===
   * Aug 12, 2021 - Bernal et al: Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant ((August 12, 2021 | Bernal et al | [[:New England Journal of Medicine]] | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2108891|DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2108891]]))
+  * June 23, 2022 - Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign((June 23, 2022 | Theodore Lytras et al | J Med Virol | Comparative effectiveness and durability of COVID‐19 vaccination against death and severe disease in an ongoing nationwide mass vaccination campaign | [[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9349766/|doi: 10.1002/jmv.27934]]))
+    * This study from Greece concludes 90% VE which waves to 80% over six months, consistent over age bands.
-=== Critiques of Data ===
+=== Efficacy vs. Omicron ===
+There are many reports and studies suggesting that the vaccines have a negative efficacy rate with respect to one or more of the SARS-omicron viruses.((December 31, 2021 | The National Pulse | [[https://thenationalpulse.com/2021/12/31/vaccinated-21-times-more-likely-to-get-omicron/|Vaccinated 21 Times More Likely to Get Omicron]]))
+==== Critiques of Data ====
 [[:Martin Neil]] et al wrote up a statistical analysis ([[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356756711_Latest_statistics_on_England_mortality_data_suggest_systematic_mis-categorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination|in preprint]] as of December 14, 2021) suggestive of systematic mis-categorization of vaccination status making COVID-19 vaccine efficacy appear better than reality in retrospective analyses.
+Professor [[:Norman Fenton]] and colleagues noted numerous statistical sieves and paradoxes that make published studies unreliable.((September, 2021 | [[:Norman Fenton]] et al | preprint | Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness: Why current studies (for or against vaccination) cannot be trusted and what we can do about it |[[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354601308_Paradoxes_in_the_reporting_of_Covid19_vaccine_effectiveness_Why_current_studies_for_or_against_vaccination_cannot_be_trusted_and_what_we_can_do_about_it|DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.32655.30886]])) In a blog post, Fenton demonstrated that in a simulation, either delays in death reports or the counting of recently vaccinated as unvaccinated can fully explain claimed efficacy rates.((November 14, 2021 | [[:Norman Fenton]] | [[https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html|Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?]]))
 Pharmaceutical marketing expert, biotech analyst, and former [[:pharmaceutical_companies:Pfizer]] employee [[:Karen Kingston]] argues that infections rose substantially after injection with COVID-19 vaccines.((Oct 1, 2021 | [[:A Final Warning]] | [[https://www.afinalwarning.com/558686.html|Former Pfizer employee flags FDA study, warns that Pfizer vaccine increases COVID by over 300%]]))
@@ Line 45: / Line 107: @@
 In a retrospective analysis of [[:New York]] state hospitals, researchers claim to see no real declining efficacy at preventing hospitalization from the various COVID-19 vaccines as the delta strain became predominant.((Dec 1, 2021 | Rosenberg et al | [[:New England Journal of Medicine]] | [[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2116063|doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2116063]]))
-==== Examination of All-Cause Mortality Risk ====
+===== Examination of All-Cause Mortality Risk =====
   * [[Columbia University]] research [[:Spiro Pantazatos]] and colleague [[:Herve Seligmann]] produced [[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355581860_COVID_vaccination_and_age-stratified_all-cause_mortality_risk|a study]] showing an association between greater COVID-19 vaccination and higher all-cause mortality.
   * [[https://orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-adjusted-all-cause-mortality?r=zp558 | Age adjusted all cause mortality trends 2000-2021 in Europe]]. An extremely detailed Substack piece from Orwell2024. Among the many conclusions are; 1) 2020: The age adjusted mortality demonstrates the overreaction in the Covid-19 crises; 2) 2021: Neither a positive nor negative impact of the vaccine can be seen; and 3) The observed excess mortality in Austria and Netherlands is dominated by mortality in the elderly age bins. Those are 95% vaccinated like in Sweden, Spain and France. The vaccine doesn’t reduce nor increase all cause mortality. It isn’t the underlying root cause. QR passports and the one dimensional panic driven C19 health focus has to stop.
-==== Local Observational Studies ====
-Koren et al showed little difference in [[:SARS-CoV-2]] positive rates among airport travelers in [[Israel]]. https://pecc-il.org/pdf-doc/green-pass-and-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-in-israel-a-more-realistic-empirical-assessment-analyzing-the-airport-data/
-=== Data Controversies ===
+===== Data Controversies =====
+Official efficacy calculations often skip the first 10, 12, 14, or 21 days before computing efficacy. But those days cannot be skipped in a risk-benefit analysis (or in real life), and what happens during that span could be dangerous.((September 15, 2021 | el gato malo | [[https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-vaccinated-covid-deathshospitalizations?s=r|why "vaccinated covid deaths/hospitalizations" are being counted incorrectly]]))
 COVID-19 vaccine data discussions have been made confusing if not outright fraudulent by the unclarified or misclarified use of data categories such as intervals "first 14 days after dose 1". It is unclear the extent to which such categorization has been used, intentionally or otherwise, to rig vaccine efficacy statistics, but the effect is undisputably large when such miscategorization takes place.
   * Jan 13, 2022 - Data analyst Joel Smalley caught the government of [[:Alberta]] red-handed dumping half of the COVID-19 deaths of those vaccinated into the unvaccinated pool which had the effect of resersing negative vaccine efficacy.((January 13, 2022 | [[:Joel Smalley]] | [[https://metatron.substack.com/p/alberta-just-inadvertently-confessed?s=09|Alberta just inadvertently confessed to fiddling the COVID vaccination stats.]]))
@@ Line 65: / Line 127: @@
   * A [[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00258-1/fulltext | letter in The Lancet]] from November, 2021, suggests, among many other startling statistics, that "Recent data [...] indicate that the epidemiological relevance of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals is increasing. In the UK it was described that secondary attack rates among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% for vaccinated vs 23% for unvaccinated).
+===== Efficacy Among Key Subgroups =====
-==== Global COVID-19 Vaccine Systemic Efficacy Statistics ====
+==== Immunosuppressed Patients ====
- * [[:Mathew Crawford]] wrote at [[:Rounding the Earth]] about how COVID-19 cases and deaths are going up in far more nations than in where they are going down since vaccine rollout. ([[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-covid-19-vaccine-efficacy|Systemic COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Basics]]) The article reports that as of October 20, 2021, according to the [[:Our World in Data]] COVID-19 dataset,
+  * Nov, 2021 - A study on 133 participants including 53 immunocompetent participants show that patients with [[:chronic inflammatory disease]] (CID) produced two-thirds less antibodies after vaccination.((November, 2021 | Deepak et al | [[:Annals of Internal Medicine]] | [[https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-1757|doi.org/10.7326/M21-1757]]))
-  * Cases have increased 26.1% in [[:Africa]].
-  * Cases have increased 169.6% in [[:Asia]].
-  * Cases have increased 690% in [[:Australia]].
-  * Cases have increased 56.6% in [[:Europe]].
-  * Cases have increased 67.6% in [[:North America]].
-  * Cases have increased 59.9% in [[:South America]].
-  * Cases have increased 76.3% worldwide.
-  * Deaths have increased 27.1% in Africa.
-  * Deaths have increased 122.8% in Asia.
-  * Deaths have increased 155.3% in Australia
-  * Deaths have increased 30.2% in Europe.
-  * Deaths have increased 37.3% in North America.
-  * Deaths have increased 55.7% in South America.
-  * Deaths have increased 46.3% worldwide.
- * [[:Mathew Crawford]] wrote at [[:Rounding the Earth]] about how there is no distinction in any [[:COVID-19 vaccine trials]] data or subsequent retrospective analyses that is inconsistent with the [[:hypothesis]] that the vaccines are ineffective. ([[https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-vaccine-efficacy-part-4|Systemic Vaccine Efficacy, Part 4]])
 ===== Vaccine Efficacy Vs. Natural Immunity =====
@@ Line 89: / Line 137: @@
-===== Efficacy Among Key Subgroups =====
-==== Immunosuppressed Patients ====
-  * Nov, 2021 - A study on 133 participants including 53 immunocompetent participants show that patients with [[:chronic inflammatory disease]] (CID) produced two-thirds less antibodies after vaccination.((November, 2021 | Deepak et al | [[:Annals of Internal Medicine]] | [[https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-1757|doi.org/10.7326/M21-1757]]))
-===== Extreme Cases that Speak to Efficacy =====
-  * Nov 6, 2021 - Despite a 99.5% double-vaccination rate, Co Waterford, Ireland had the highest case rate in all of Ireland.((November 6, 2021 | [[:Sky News]] | [[https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642|COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?]]))
@@ Line 122: / Line 162: @@
 https://dkfynn.substack.com/p/have-we-gotten-anywhere
+https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/01/20/public-health-data-confirms-vaccinated-more-likely-to-die-of-covid/
 === Fading Efficacy ===
-https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/96412
-https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410
-https://thenationalpulse.com/2021/12/31/vaccinated-21-times-more-likely-to-get-omicron/
 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114228